Writing for DW, Elliott Morss predicts three possible economic scenarios for Ukraine as the turmoil there continues. None of them, he says, are particularly appealing.
Let us suppose Russia is satisfied with seizing Crimea for the moment. It is quite possible that Russia's actions have already let "the genie is out of the bottle" and a Ukrainian civil war will ensue. History has many stories of people who dislike one another being kept at peace by a dictator, e.g., Tito - Yugoslavia, Saddam Hussein - Iraq. But once they were gone, civil wars took place. Think of Russia as the "dictator equivalent" that has kept Ukraine at peace. Once the dictator is gone, chaos - a civil war. And the history of civil wars is not good. All out civil war is close in Ukraine.
Elliott Morss has spent most of his career teaching and working as an economic consultant to developing countries on issues of trade, finance, and environmental preservation. For several years, he worked in the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund. He later helped establish Development Alternatives, a firm that became the largest contractor to the US foreign assistance program (AID). Since his first IMF assignment in Ghana in 1966, he has worked in 45 countries.